Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
