Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
